One of the main conclusions is that the LED industry is entering its third growth cycle: general lighting. Growth of the LED industry has come initially from the small display application and has been driven forward by the LCD display application. LED TV was expected to be the LED industry driver for 2011 but the reality was quite different... Lower adoption of LEDs in the TV market and the entry of several new players, mostly from Asia, created a climate of overcapacity, price pressure and strong competition. As a consequence, packaged LED volume was about 30% lower than expected and revenue shrank due to strong ASP pressure.
“In 2012, most companies have moved to the new “El Dorado” of LED business: general lighting, which represents the next killer application for LEDs. But enabling massive adoption of the technology for such an application still requires a large decrease in the cost of LED-based products…,” explains Pars Mukish, Market and Technology Analyst, LED at Yole Développement.
Yole Développement and EPIC estimate packaged LED revenue will reach a market size of $11.4B in 2012 and will peak to $17.1B by 2018. Growth will be driven both by the display (LCD TV) and general lighting applications until massive adoption of LEDs in lighting. From 2014, the third growth cycle of the LED business will accelerate with the general lighting application representing more than 50% of the overall packaged LED business. In terms of volume, LED die surface will increase from 22.5B mm² (2012) to 80B mm² (2018). This will prompt substrate volume growth from 8M x 2” equivalent (TIE) in 2011 to 39.5M x 2” equivalent in 2018 with a CAGR of 26%.
Yole Développement & EPIC analysis presents all applications of LEDs and associated market metrics within the period 2008-2020, detailing for each application: drivers & challenges, associated volume and market size (packaged LED, LED die surface), penetration rate of LEDs…